martedì 10 agosto 2010

IL Quantitative Easing 2.0 è fra noi.

Condividi

Ma non è esattamente quello che i mercati e i coca-cowboy (Stefano scusa per il plagio) si aspettavano; eccolo qui:

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.

Traduzione : La Fed utilizzerà gli strumenti accumulati in scadenza (T-bond vari e mutui o strumenti derivati da mutui) per comprare T-bond a 10 e 30 anni. Lo scopo è quello di abbassare il tasso di riferimento su cui si calcola la rata dei mutui americani (t-bond 30y soprattutto) e dare ancora liquidità al sistema. Buona Fortuna.
Ecco il Risultato sui mercati:
(i grafici si aggiornano in real time con un refresh)
Dow Jones
Euro/Dollaro


Oro



E yen (vicino ai massimi a 13 anni sul dollaro)








Rischio Calcolato  pensa che la vera notizia è la certificazione  del rallentamento dell'economia Usa; la misura di QE annunciata può essere considerata modesta anzi conservativa con buona pace di chi ha azzardato investire in azioni nei giorni scorsi. Un ultima notazione, i rendimenti dei Bond a 10y e 30y americani stanno allegramente viaggiando verso numeri giapponesi (nel momento in cui scrivo un T-bond10y rende il 2.75%)
Buon Trading a tutti


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2 commenti:

Beatotrader 10 agosto 2010 23:31  

nessun problema paolo
toro drogato
coca-cow-boy
e tante altre etichette da me coniate
sono ormai patrimonio comune...
fatene buon uso, cercando di ricordarvi di me...:-)

comunque la FED ha fatto una via di mezzo attendista, in attesa degli sviluppi
morale della favola: non capiscono un cazzo pure loro di cosa potrebbe succedere prossimamente...
e Bernanke l'ha ammesso con la locuzione recente "eccezionalmento incerto"...
ciaoooo

Basta poco per sostenere Rischio Calcolato, sottoscrivi il feed oppure investi 2 minuti del tuo tempo cliccando su questo link... Grazie!

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