martedì 28 settembre 2010

Speciale Irlanda: Intervista shock con il ministro dell'economia irlandese!

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(tratto da ZeroHedge)

Il brano tratto da ZeroHedge è un lavoro di copia incolla fatto da un lungo articolo apparso sul Blog di Robert Peston un giornalista  dell BBC. (articolo integrale: link). Bruce Krasting (BK) è un collaboratore del blog ZeroHedge che commenta quanto scritto da Robert Peston e aggiunge alcune informazioni molto utili per comprendere la estrema gravità della situazione.

Ne esce la descrizione di un sistema bancario iper-leveraggiato di cui la Anglo Irish Bank è solo la punta dell'iceberg, la quantità di derivati in pancia alle banche Irlandesi ha raggiuntyo l'incredibile cifra di 884 miliardi di dollari ovvero 5 volte il Pil Irlandese.

Nota per la lettura: in rosso i brani copiati e incollati tratti dal blog del giornalista BBC Robert Peston


Robert Peston (BBC) wrote a blog about his conversation with Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan. He spells out the death grip of debt that Ireland is in. A good read. Some cut and pastes:


Total foreign bank exposure to Ireland's economy is $844bn, or five times the value of Ireland's GDP or economic output.

BK: By way of comparison the CIA puts total external debt of Germany at 1.5X’s GDP. The US is 1:1 Canada has a ratio of 0.7. And Ireland is 5X’s? How did they get so deep into hock? (That same ratio for Russia, India and Brazil: 0.4X, 0.2X and 0.2X respectively. Ahem....)

German and UK banks are Ireland's biggest creditors, with €206bn and €224bn of exposure respectively.

BK: About $600b. Just the UK and Germany. What’s a good “haircut” estimate on this? My answer is it starts with 20% and could be as high as 30%. That would come to $150b. This would be a lights out event for the banks.

The Irish economy is hideously and perilously balanced between recovery and Armageddon.

Mr. Lenihan didn't rule out in his interview with me that the Irish government might eventually be obliged to ask for financial support from the European Financial Stability Facility.

BK: When any Finance Minister says, “I wouldn’t rule that out”, he is really saying, “We are trying to kick the can down the road a bit longer, but really the lines have crossed and we are going to need help.”


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