mercoledì 3 novembre 2010

E' arrivato il Quantitative Easing 2 da 600 mld di $: commento a caldissimo

Condividi

In sintesi: La Fed ha deciso di stampare altri 600 mld di dollari per comprare titoli di stato con durata media di 5 anni per i prossimi 7 mesi. Sommati ai circa 300 miliardi già previsti dal precedente piano di reimpiego dei proventi degli asset tossici fa un totale di circa 900mld!.

Commento a caldissimo sapendo che è quasi un terno al lotto :
Per Rischio Calcolato il Quantitative Easing 2 è troppo poco rispetto alle aspettative dei mercati azionari, obbligazionari e valutari. Secondo Rischio Calcolato un intervento di questa entità è già ampiamente scontato dai mercati.  E' anche possibile che l'Euro, magari dopo qualche ultima fiammata, nei prossimi giorni ricominci a perdere terreno rispetto al dollaro.

Di seguito il comunicato stampa ufficiale del comitato esecutivo della Fed:

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. 
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. Mr. Hoenig believed the risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits. Mr. Hoenig also was concerned that this continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy.
And from the New York Fed:
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities
On November 3, 2010, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to expand the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. In particular, the FOMC directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.
The FOMC also directed the Desk to continue to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury securities. Based on current estimates, the Desk expects to reinvest $250 to $300 billion over the same period, though the realized amount of reinvestment will depend on the evolution of actual principal payments.
Taken together, the Desk anticipates conducting $850 to $900 billion of purchases of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter. This would result in an average purchase pace of roughly $110 billion per month, representing about $75 billion per month associated with additional purchases and roughly $35 billion per month associated with reinvestment purchases.
The Desk plans to distribute these purchases across the following eight maturity sectors based on the approximate weights below:

Basta poco per sostenere Rischio Calcolato, sottoscrivi il feed oppure investi 2 minuti del tuo tempo cliccando su questo link... Grazie!


http://www.wikio.it
Share |

5 commenti:

SCALZOTTO CARLO (ROXIONI) 3 novembre 2010 21:15  

Secondo me questa news del QE2(vista l'entità), i mercati l'hanno già assorbita da tempo. Prevedo uno sbandamento iniziale per poi scendere di brutto. Mah..se i mercati erano (per così dire) drogati, prima o poi l'effetto della droga finisce.

FunnyKing 3 novembre 2010 21:19  

si dovrebbe andare cosi'.

Anonimo,  3 novembre 2010 23:56  

saranno contenti i cinesi che si faranno finanziare, da qualche banca americana, qualche nuova fabrichetta per far concorrenza alle manifatture occidentali.

Anonimo,  4 novembre 2010 06:37  

Leggiamo bene:

"The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability."

As needed...quindi in realtà sono 900 testoni MINIMO, il solo limite è il cielo visto che si riservano di aumentare a piacere la dose in corsa!

E tanti cari saluti alle "condizioni di mercato", che ti dicevo Funny? ;)

Hiei

FunnyKing 4 novembre 2010 11:26  

già, grazie di avermi fatto notare il passaggio chiave.

Basta poco per sostenere Rischio Calcolato, sottoscrivi il feed oppure investi 2 minuti del tuo tempo cliccando su questo link... Grazie!

  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP